Comments on Paleo-Future: The Internet? Bah! (1995)

Wonder what he has to say now

2008-04-24T16:57:00.000-05:00

Wonder what he has to say now

"Yes, the Montgomery Ward catalogue started in 187...

2008-04-17T13:01:00.000-05:00

"Yes, the Montgomery Ward catalogue started in 1872. It's totally moved online now."

Dude, you're OLD! LOL

"Besides, long before the internet we have had hom...

2008-04-11T13:37:00.000-05:00

"Besides, long before the internet we have had home shopping catalogues for decades, possibly longer (I'm not old enough to know)."

Yes, the Montgomery Ward catalogue started in 1872. It's totally moved online now.

Even though I have nothing to add to the discussio...

2008-04-07T13:21:00.000-05:00

Even though I have nothing to add to the discussion, I just had to comment to say that I agree completely with Wutzke.

I don't have to drive between 5 and 30 minutes to get to the store (that being pretty much the maximum distance that would still possibly interest me in going there), but when I'm at the store I want to just simply browse the articles. Yet while at a store I do lack the power of the internet to come up with reviews about a product and a sales person walking around might be able to give somewhat of an impression, but he still wants to sell something, after all.

The absense of sales people is exactly what makes shopping on the internet much more pleasant. Besides, long before the internet we have had home shopping catalogues for decades, possibly longer (I'm not old enough to know). It's not very different from an electronic version of such a catalogue, except that it's always up to date.

Typing this gave me the time to think about it a bit longer, though. This got me thinking that maybe he's primarily talking in response to a sort of "e-shopping will completely replace 'classical' shopping" article written by someone.

The fact that he was using the Internet so early a...

2008-04-01T11:25:00.000-05:00

The fact that he was using the Internet so early accounts for nothing. I'm often surprised at how people who started as visionaries can become luddites quite easily. If you go to most tech-related websites - reddit, slashdot, etc - you'll see "intelligent" people promptly flaming anything new with a burning passion.

However, I think if we read that article in context, much of this might have been because of the Internet bubble that existed at the time and eventually burst. There was the hype, and it was solid. I was quite flabbergasted at the time by the amount of crazy ecommerce ideas that popped up everytime. But to discount that we'll eventually reach a destination because we're going too fast already is blind negativity.

It's also funny how people always assume it's all black and white. They assume that if e-commerce exists, than physical commerce will cease to be, as if it was a complete replacement. That's hardly the case...

Don't forget peak oil, food shortage, and recessio...

2008-04-01T05:54:00.000-05:00

Don't forget peak oil, food shortage, and recession brought about by major financial problems. All of these will affect the availability of resources needed to continue operating Internet technology.

Cacophony is still a major problem of the Internet...

2008-04-01T02:02:00.000-05:00

Cacophony is still a major problem of the Internet. Luckily, we have a lot of ways of filtering that content: search engines, Digg, and the traditional gatekeeper model like a CNN or NYT. Instead of only the gatekeeper model being valid, now any method can be valid as long as it returns results the users like. This is more important than the blogosphere becoming a new mainstream medium. Making it easy to switch news sources keeps competition high and keeps users happy. And now, if they don't like any of the available options, they can always create one of their own. He was completely right when he cited cacophony as one of the Internet's central problems. So far, the most successful orgs have been the ones who can crush cacophony the best.

i lol'd. nice find.

2008-03-30T17:34:00.000-05:00

i lol'd. nice find.

I'll give him credit - I couldn't have even come u...

2008-03-28T23:19:00.000-05:00

I'll give him credit - I couldn't have even come up with the idea for PayPal.

I don't think Stoll lacked vision or thought that ...

2008-03-28T17:18:00.000-05:00

I don't think Stoll lacked vision or thought that the Internet was unimportant -- if you know who he is you'll know that he's been using the Internet before 99.9% of us knew it existed -- it's just that he didn't like hype. And he was right. When I hear bloggers claiming that they are the "new media" I can only think back to 1999 when the dot-com people thought they were the "new economy".

Wutzke,That was going to be my comment exactly.

2008-03-28T15:45:00.000-05:00

Wutzke,

That was going to be my comment exactly.

I think I see a trend that predictions of what peo...

2008-03-28T12:45:00.000-05:00

I think I see a trend that predictions of what people think technology WILL be never happens, but when people predict what tech WILL NOT happen actually accurately predict what will happen, but in 180.

He certainly lacks vision in this article--but I'v...

2008-03-28T12:22:00.000-05:00

He certainly lacks vision in this article--but I've read one of his books and he was always a hesitant geek--always believed in humanity and was not a slave to the machine. He does have some good points, though: "Lacking editors, reviewers or critics, the Internet has become a wasteland of unfiltered data."

Dennis, with Amazon's Kindle, you can subscribe to...

2008-03-28T10:51:00.000-05:00

Dennis, with Amazon's Kindle, you can subscribe to (i.e., pay for) newspapers, so now even that prediction was wrong. ;-)

I get most of my news for free over the Internet. ...

2008-03-28T09:54:00.000-05:00

I get most of my news for free over the Internet. It's my primary source of news. So he was wrong even when he was sort of right.

His last statement is probably the most egregious,...

2008-03-28T09:53:00.000-05:00

His last statement is probably the most egregious, actually; it is the very absence of (annoying, cloying, pushy) salespeople on the internet that make it so attractive. I can come and go, click around here and there, and not have someone interrupt every 5 minutes with "Can I help you?" and "That's a nice shirt" and "Hi, how are you?" I'm annoyed, thanks.

At least he was right about no one buying newspape...

2008-03-28T09:32:00.000-05:00

At least he was right about no one buying newspapers over the Internet. That counts for something, right?

Thanks to the internet, I have been doing all of m...

2008-03-28T09:17:00.000-05:00

Thanks to the internet, I have been doing all of my schooling without a "physical teacher".

I think he makes a some salient points about the p...

2008-03-28T09:05:00.000-05:00

I think he makes a some salient points about the problems of the introwebs, but underestimates the human willingness to go with the worse of two options. Many of his criticisms are quite right, but the Internet succeeded in spite of (and perhaps because of) them.

Yeah, how could the Inter Net ever turn into a big...

2008-03-28T07:34:00.000-05:00

Yeah, how could the Inter Net ever turn into a big deal? It's just a series of tubes!

Yep, this "prediction" ranks right up there with "Aeroplanes are a crazy idea that will never work", "No one will ever need a computer in their home" and "512k is all the RAM you'll ever need" as one of the worst prognostications ever.